Improving Alpine Flood Prediction and Hydropower Management
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Currently, the cantons of the Valais and Vaud in the Swiss Alps are in the design stage for developing measures against flooding of the Rhone River in the Third Rhone Correction Project. Parallel to physical modifications of the river levees and bottom, this project is managing floods by using the retention capacity of existing dams and reservoirs. Managing hydraulic controls with respect to hydrological forecasting is the underlying idea of the MINERVE model developed at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne. Based on discharge forecasts, the MINERVE optimization tool recommends preventive turbine and gate operations for hydropower reservoirs to enable an increase in reservoir capacity in sight of an incoming strong storm event. However, in spite of efforts over the past 7 years, the semi-distributed MINERVE model has continually demonstrated poor calibration with measured flows for two particular watersheds, the Visp and the Dranse. As these catchments are relatively ungauged, the complex hydrological processes including precipitation and temperature space/time distributions and rainfall-runoff partitioning have not been able to be captured in the model. The goal of this research is to accurately characterize the hydrology in the Swiss Alps, particularly in the Visp and the Dranse, in the presence of steep mountainous terrain, complex orographic effects, and a non-stationary snow line. Uncertainties will also be associated with the hydrological processes to develop probabilistic forecasts used for hydraulic controls and flood warning systems.
