HydroPredict

Hydrologic Prediction in Alpine Environments

This research proposes to quantify the predictability of the hydrologic behavior of Alpine catchements at the spatio-temporal scales relevant for water management, i.e. at spatial scales of between 200 km2 (e.g. a hydropower production catchment) and around 5000 km2 (e.g. flood management of the Swiss Rhone catchment) and at temporal scales ranging from hours to seasons. The main objective of this research is to determine at which spatial and temporal scale we can make reliable discharge predictions (including predictions of extreme events) under given data constraints. These data constraints include limited knowledge of the variability of the meteorological input (in particular of temperature and precipitation) and of the ecosystem characteristics (e.g. soil properties, vegetation). Quantifying the predictability of stream flow requires first of all understanding the inherent variability of the involved flow generation processes and how this variability integrates to the catchment scale stream flow response. Model-based prediction of this response then calls for detailed insights into the ability of a chosen model to reproduce this variability and into the possibility to parameterize and calibrate the model with the data at hand. To answer the overall question, the following subtopics are addressed: A) what is the relationship between the distribution of water travel times through snow packs, hillslopes and river channels and the required spatial resolution of meteorological input fields to reproduce the overall response of the catchment, i.e. to simulate stream flow? B) what is the required complexity of a hydrological model to reproduce this catchment response? i.e. is a classical rainfall-runoff model consisting of a set of connected linear reservoirs sufficient or do we need threshold formulations or other nonlinear model components? C) can this model be parameterized and calibrated given the available observations of meteorological input and stream flow? How reliable are the results? The specific methods to be developed will together build a new framework for the development of Alpine discharge prediction models.

This research project is funded through the Ambizione programme of the FNS.

 
 


Funding agencie(s) : 
Partners :
 
 
Period : 2011-2014
 

Contact person(s) : B. Schaefli